The Screen Actors Guild Awards are a good - but not flawless - predictor of the Academy Awards.
Last year, "No Country for Old Men" won overall honors along with an award for supporting actor Javier Bardem. Other winners: Daniel Day-Lewis of "There Will Be Blood" and Julie Christie of "Away From Her" for their leading roles, and Ruby Dee for her supporting turn in "American Gangster."
On Oscar night, "No Country" cleaned up and Bardem and Day-Lewis won, but Christie and Dee lost to Marion Cotillard of "La Vie en Rose" and Tilda Swinton of "Michael Clayton."
This year, the forecasts will be muddled by the placement of Kate Winslet (a supporting winner for "The Reader") in the lead category alongside Meryl Streep. If I were entering an Oscar contest or betting the mortgage money, I would go for Winslet today. But there is still a month to go.
And since Sean Penn already won an Oscar for "Mystic River," voters might reward Mickey Rourke for his comeback. I once thought the race would be Rourke vs. "Frost/Nixon" star Frank Langella but it appears to be Penn against Rourke. Again, it's still early in the game.