Pitt-N.C. State -- The Matchup Scorecard and Prediction

 Often over the past few years on my chats I get the inevitable question "predict a score." Almost always, I throw it out there without much analysis and sometimes it is right or close to being right and sometimes it is wrong. I bet I am somewhere around 50/50 over the past ten years. But like I always say and have always said -- if I knew the score before the game began I'd be Sam Rothstein in Vegas and making a living betting games. There is just no way you can account for turnovers or busted plays - i.e. the 34 points handed to Pitt via turnovers and a long run against Buffalo -- or foul weather or countless other variables that come up within the context of a game

That being said, I feel like this game will be somewhere in the neighborhood of, oh I don't know, how about Pitt 24, N.C. State 17. I'll be surprised if either team blows the other out and I feel like the Panthers are a little better - not too mention healthier -- than the Wolfpack at a lot of spots. I obviously have watched all three of Pitt's games and I did get to watch N.C. State play against South Carolina in its opener, so I have at least seen them play. I think that is a key - I watched Navy's first two games before they played Pitt and I watched Buffalo's opener as well. So I do watch as much of Pitt's opponents as I can so that I have some idea of what to expect. Watching upcoming opponents games (I am a college football junkie so I watch games all day and night, the replays on ESPNU, Big Ten Network, CBS Sports Channel, ESPN2 make it so nice to watch multiple games that I might have missed because I was covering Pitt) is such an underrated part of what we do here, but I'm not sure how you could do this job if you didn't watch games (which is why I sat through that Louisville-Kentucky game the other day).

But guessing at the score is a silly exercise --- let's take a look at the matchups between the two teams and score them using the boxing scoring system per category to see whether or not we can up with a reason why we think Pitt will win this game.

QUARTERBACK - Russell Wilson vs. Bill Stull...Wilson is a little more mobile, has a little quicker release and was an All-ACC player last year. He has the streak of 329 passes in a row without an interception. He has completed 53 of 80 passes for 647 yards eight touchdowns. Stull is on his way to a fine season and has been consistent through three games. He has gained confidence each week and he has proven he can make a lot of the passes he is being asked to. He has completed 49 of 70 passes for 540 yards, six touchdowns and an interception. We like what we've seen from him so far but this is a different challenge. It is definitely closer between these two now than it looked like it would have been at the start of the season but despite that.....

Advantage - Score this one 10-9 N.C. State.

RUNNING BACKS - Pitt's stable of running backs goes three deep at tailback, Dion Lewis, Ray Graham and Shariff Harris and also includes a bruising fullback in Henry Hynoski. The Panthers have averaged 5.3 yards per carry and 174 yards rushing per game. Lewis has been a star thus far, turning in two 100 yard games and rushing for 398 yards and five touchdowns. This group has also shown it can catch balls out of the backfield. N.C. State's Toney Baker is an effective runner with good size (5-11, 225) and he has averaged a healthy 5.6 yards per carry. But his longest run is only 23 yards, which suggests he isn't much of a game breaker. The Wolfpack also use a fullback but neither of their two fullbacks - Taylor Gentry and Harrison Richter -- has carried the ball this year, though they've combined to catch five passes so they are a bit of a weapon out of the backfield. I think N.C. State can run the ball but the Panthers depth at this position and versatility give them a slight edge so.....

Advantage - Score this one 10-9 Pitt.

Pitt offensive line versus N.C. State defensive front seven - The Panthers starting offensive line -- Pinkston, Thomas, Houser, Malecki and Nix -- has been intact for the first three games which is important for continuity's sake. And that is a good thing because that unit, which has been pretty good in run blocking and little inconsistent in pass blocking in terms of mental busts. Yes, the unit has only given up one sack but a lot of that has to do with quick throws as well as the lack of true competition. All of that will change in this game as the Wolfpack's front seven is impressive and will get after the Panthers. Defensive end Willie Young (6-foot-4, 250) looks (meaning his build) and plays a lot like Jabaal Sheard as he leads the team with three sacks and the other defensive end, Shea McKeen (6-5, 265) is tall and quick (1.5 sacks). Middle linebacker Ray Michel is a smart football player who is a sure tackler. The Wolfpack aren't a big blitz team but have 11 sacks, so they'll put pressure on the Panthers. This is probably one of the most important matchups of the game but we think both sides are pretty good so.....

Advantage - Score this one even 10-10 

Pitt defensive front seven versus N.C. State offensive line - Pitt has 15 sacks and the defensive line, though it hadn't been dominant until the last game, is extremely talented. And the last two weeks, the middle linebacker - be it Adam Gunn or Dan Mason - has been the Big East defensive player of the week. This front seven, particularly since Greg Williams and Max Gruder continue to improve every week, has a chance to be the best in the Big East by the time the season rolls around. N.C. State's offensive line has been a M.A.S.H unit and somewhat of a disaster to this point as Tom O'Brien has scrambled to shuffle guys in and out of the lineup in order to find a combination that is healthy and works. The team has not had the same five guys start the first three games and there will be another combination in this game. And that includes two freshman - right guard R.J. Mattes (6-6, 303) and left tackle Andrew Wallace (6-5, 299) (though, Jake Vermiglio has been cleared to play)- which is not usually a good thing. The line is big, but given the lack of cohesion, the relative youth at some places and the injuries....

Advantage - Score this one 10-8 Pitt  

N.C. State receivers and tight ends versus Pitt's secondary - Jarvis Williams is a big play guy for N.C. State (17.4 yards per reception) and he's also 6-foot-4, which will pose some problems for the Panthers. The leading receiver is actually tight end George Bryan (12 receptions, 127 yards) and like Williams, he is tall (6-5) and though he isn't likely to be covered often by Pitt's corners, his size makes him a dangerous weapon. And size is really going to be the theme here as N.C. State's receivers beyond Williams are Darrell Davis (6-4), Donald Bowens (6-3) and T.J. Graham (6-0). Pitt's secondary has gotten off to a very shaky start, particularly given the way the unit was torched for some big plays by Buffalo. Pitt's corners -- Aaron Berry and Jovanni Chappel -- are small, so that presents some problems in covering the receivers and though both safeties - Elijah Fields and Dom DeCicco - - are big and physical, they've both had their moments this season when they've allowed receivers to get behind them. Pitt's secondary has plenty to prove before it merits the respect it wants so....

Advantage - Score this one 10-9 N.C. State

Pitt's receivers and tight ends versus N.C. State's secondary -- Dropped passes hurt the Panthers in their last game but the receivers and tight ends have played well for the most part. Jonathan Baldwin is obviously a big-time player in the making, Oderick Turner and Cedric McGee have been, for the most part, reliable complements to him and Nate Byham and Dorin Dickerson both are matchup problems for most defenses. Like the Wolfpack offensive line, N.C. State is both banged up and extremely young in the secondary and that is not a good thing given the Panthers strength, depth and versatility at receiver. Two freshmen - Earl Wolff and Brandon Bishop (though Clem Johnson has been cleared to play according to N.C. State) - are likely to start at safety for the Wolfpack and starting cornerback Rashard Smith is out with an ankle injury so it seems like the deck is stacked in favor of.....

Advantage - Score this one 10-9 Pitt

SPECIALISTS - N.C. State is averaging 13.6 yards per punt return and 20.3 yards per kick-off return so they have been a little better than their counterparts on the Panthers (7.8 and 19.9) and both kickers are 3-for-3 on the year, though N.C. State's Josh Czajkowski (43, 41, 36) has kicked all three of his from further than any of Dan Hutchins (29, 26, 18). But Hutchins is averaging a few more yards (41.3 to 38.7) per punt than Jeff Ruiz. Both units are well coached and won't give up many big plays this year and both teams have enough skill and speed in their return units to take it the distance. With two reliable kickers to finish drives if needed.....

Advantage - Score this one even 10-10

Coaching - I often hear about what a great coach Tom O'Brien is and my question is always the same "yeah, but - outside a few meaningless minor bowl games, what has he won?" Don't get me wrong, his teams always seem to play hard, they are disciplined and that speaks to being well coached, but let's be serious - he's averaged a very mediocre 7 wins per season and outside of 2004 - when Boston College was one of four teams to tie for first in the Big East - he's never won a conference title. He's in his 13th season and he's only had four teams finish ranked and none in the top 15. Dave Wannstedt promised a new level for Pitt athletics and after a rocky start seems to be moving in the right direction. Pitt has won 13 of its last 17 games, are coming off their first 9-win regular season in forever and appear to have the depth and talent to get to the BCS for the first time since 2004. Wannstedt has been a great recruiter - now he needs to prove it by winning games like today. It is a close call, in fact, too close to call so.....

Advantage -  Score this one even 10-10

Looking at my scorecard, I score this as 78-76 for Pitt, which, I think would translate into a close (as in, one score) victory for the Panthers. If you want to send me your scorecard using these eight categories -- feel free to at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. -- and I'll tally up the results and publish them before the game on Saturday.......

Clearly, however, the key matchups for Pitt are in the passing game on both sides of the ball. I think Pitt will be able to stop N.C. State from running the football, the key question is -- can they stop the Wolfpack from throwing it?

Well, as many people over time have said....That is why they play the games.....